Backing Anisimova -132

Match: Amanda Anisimova vs Jessica Pegula Venue: Rod Laver Arena (roof closed) Surface: Hard court (playing slow)

THE SELECTION

We are backing Amanda Anisimova at -132 against Jessica Pegula.

The market prices Anisimova at 53.5% probability (after removing the vig). Our model places her at 60.3%, giving us a 6.8% edge.

HEAD-TO-HEAD: 3-0 Pegula

Why we discount this H2H: All three of Pegula's wins came when Anisimova was either a teenager, returning from a mental health break, or ranked outside the top 100. Anisimova has since won two WTA 1000 titles and reached world #3.

PLAYER PROFILES

Anisimova - Age 24, Rank #4, Height 5'11"

• 2025: Two WTA 1000 titles (Doha, Beijing)
• First American with multiple 1000s since Serena (2015)
• Aggressive power baseliner, elite backhand

Pegula - Age 31, Rank #6, Height 5'7"

• 2024 US Open finalist
• Knee injury concerns (withdrew WTA Finals)
• Flat-ball baseline player, relies on consistency

WHY ANISIMOVA WINS

1. Stylistic mismatch - Anisimova is a heavy hitter who ends points fast. Pegula struggles against power players.

2. Slow courts hurt Pegula - Her flat groundstrokes lose penetration. Anisimova generates massive pace regardless of conditions.

3. Injury factor - Pegula's knee issues are documented. Anisimova is healthy and confident.

BETTING RECOMMENDATION

Anisimova ML (-132) - 1.5 to 2 units

6.8% edge, favorable matchup dynamics, injury concerns for opponent.

*Analysis completed: January 27, 2026*