Match Analysis

The Approach

Full-immersion betting project: daily previews, model-assisted analysis, real-time odds tracking, and a running rulebook of lessons learned. Every bet required a clear thesis, confirmed by research, with honest edge estimation and disciplined sizing.

• Serve/return Elo model as background sanity check — never primary driver
• Odds API market consensus to identify mispricing
• H2H, surface records, and current form over historical Elo
• Devil's advocate every thesis before committing
• WTA avoidance after Day 3 (structural variance too high)
• 1u base sizing, scale down for lower conviction

What Worked

1. STRUCTURAL and SERVE edges crushed it. Non-FORM edge types went 7-0: SERVE (2-0), STRUCTURAL (2-0), CONDITION (1-0), LIVE (1-0). Every structural bet (O2.5 sets) and serve-based bet (-1.5 sets) cashed.
2. Rule 48 as gatekeeper. Every bet that passed "is the edge obvious before research?" won. Bets where we talked ourselves into the edge (Cerundolo, Eala vs Noskova) lost.
3. Late-tournament aggression. Days 8-12: 7-0, +8.20u. Early rounds (Days 1-7): 6-6, +2.18u. Deeper draws meant better data, fewer unknowns, cleaner edges.
4. Plus-money discipline. 10 of 13 wins on plus-money or short-minus lines. Average odds on winners: roughly +130. Finding mispriced lines, not picking favorites at -300.
5. Medvedev thesis across three bets. -1.5 sets vs Michelsen (+0.86u), -1.5 sets vs Draper (+1.32u), +1.5 sets vs Alcaraz (+2.20u). +4.38u from one evolving read. Adapted the bet type to each matchup.
6. Calibration edge signal. Double-digit edge plays went 7-1 (87.5%). Thin-edge plays (sub-5%) went 1-3 (25%). If the edge isn't big, skip it.

What Didn't Work

1. Pure FORM edges were coinflippy (5-4, 55.6%). The market already prices form efficiently. FORM was the most common edge type but the least reliable.
2. Cerundolo vs Draper (Day 6). Overweighted the injury fade when Draper had already proven his fitness deep in the tournament. Rule 46 was written after this miss.
3. Eala vs Noskova (Day 7). Fatigue thesis didn't hold. 1000-word analysis created false confidence. Noskova won 6-2, 6-0.
4. Raducanu at +255 (Day 5). The price was the thesis, not the tennis. At +255 you need a real path to winning. She didn't have one.
5. WTA dog bets underperformed. Putintseva +233, Raducanu +255, Eala +150: 0-3 for -3u. The WTA is harder to read at plus-money.
6. Futures: right read, wrong outcome. Medvedev made the final, beat Alcaraz, lost to Sinner in two tiebreaks. Process was clean. Two tiebreaks from 49u.